The Future of Baseball Betting Intelligence
Free MLB Predictions & Expert Analysis
January 30: Spring Training 2026 Rotation WAR Projections - Who Reports First Matters
Pitchers and catchers report starting February 10th, and our WAR projection models have identified which rotations will benefit most from extra prep time. The Braves and Red Sox lead Grapefruit League arrivals (Feb 10), while the Diamondbacks, White Sox, Giants, and Rangers start Cactus League workouts simultaneously. Critical statistical insight: In World Baseball Classic years, teams with early report dates historically show 0.3-0.5 better rotation ERA in April compared to late arrivers. The Dodgers (Feb 13 report) rank last among contenders on prep time despite leading in projected rotation fWAR (18.4). Our models flag this as a potential April fade opportunity. Rangers' rotation WAR projections now rank 6th in MLB (14.2 fWAR) following the Gore trade and Quantrill minor league signing. The Bellinger re-signing pushes Yankees team WAR to 43.2, but their rotation (12.8 fWAR) remains a weakness relative to Houston (15.1), Baltimore (14.6), and now Texas. Regular season opens March 25th with Yankees at Giants. First spring games begin February 20th.
January 30: Giants Bader Deal - Defensive WAR Analysis and xwOBA Projections
The Giants signed Harrison Bader to a 2-year, $20.5M deal, and the advanced metrics make this fascinating. Bader's career +34 Defensive Runs Saved in center field projects to 1.8-2.2 dWAR annually, elite value at $10.25M AAV. His offensive profile is boom-or-bust: .234 xwOBA in 2024 suggests the bat remained suppressed, but his 88.9 mph average exit velocity in limited healthy at-bats indicates underlying power when right. Our BABIP regression models project a .265-.275 batting average if he maintains his .312 xBA from swing decisions. San Francisco also moved Kai-Wei Teng to Houston for catching prospect Jancel Villarroel, a depth transaction that won't move their WAR needle but signals organizational prioritization of catching development. Combined with the Jung Hoo Lee return and emerging prospects, Giants project for 81.3 wins in our models versus a 79.5 market line. The over looks increasingly attractive with each depth signing.
January 29: Yankees Chivilli Trade - Coors Field Exit Velocity Translation Model
The Yankees acquired reliever Angel Chivilli from Colorado on Wednesday, and our statistical models suggest this is a smarter move than the market realizes. Chivilli's Coors Field numbers require careful translation: his raw 2.89 ERA becomes a park-adjusted 2.42 ERA using our altitude regression model. More importantly, his 94.6 mph average fastball velocity and 28.4% whiff rate both project to improve at sea level. Historical pitcher transitions from Coors show a 0.35-0.50 ERA improvement on average. Our xFIP projections: 2.55-2.85 ERA at Yankee Stadium with 11.2 K/9. The Yankees bullpen now projects for the 8th-best xFIP in MLB (3.28) versus 18th pre-trade. This addresses a key weakness identified in our October postmortem. For WAR projections, Chivilli adds 0.4-0.7 wins above replacement if deployed in high-leverage situations. Combined with Bellinger's re-signing (announced same day), Yankees team WAR projects to 43.2, third in the AL behind only Houston (44.1) and Baltimore (43.8).
January 29: 2026 Farm System WAR Pipeline Analysis - Guardians Lead, Yankees Middling
ESPN's Kiley McDaniel released the 2026 farm system rankings today, and our WAR projection models have extracted the betting-relevant data. Cleveland's #1 ranking is driven by pitching depth: four arms with 50+ FV grades translating to a projected 8.5 fWAR from 2026-28 prospect contributions. The Braves (#2) and Mariners (#3) show similar depth with positional balance. Critical finding for futures bettors: Teams with top-5 farms historically add 6-10 wins within 3 years of prospect graduation. The Rockies (#7) present intriguing 2028 value, projecting for 12.3 fWAR from their current pipeline. Meanwhile, the Yankees' middling farm ranking means their 2026 contention window depends entirely on current roster performance. Cashman's "championship-caliber" comments Wednesday align with our models: New York must win now because the pipeline won't sustain elite production past 2027. Cubs and Blue Jays both ranked in the lower half after aggressive deadline trades, creating clear 2-3 year windows before rebuild phases likely begin.
January 13: Trade Market Heating Up
D-backs GM Mike Hazen isn't waiting around anymore. All-Star 2B Ketel Marte is on the block and Hazen wants offers NOW. Meanwhile, one exec says the Brewers should get MORE for Freddy Peralta than the Tigers want for Tarik Skubal - Peralta's only owed $8M next year. The White Sox say there's no traction on a Luis Robert trade despite rumors. With pitchers and catchers reporting in 30 days, expect the trade market to explode this week.
January 24: Reliever xFIP Analysis - Dominguez, Rogers Signings
The White Sox and Twins both added relievers today with divergent analytical profiles. Seranthony Dominguez (2yr/$20M to Chicago) posted a concerning 4.75 ERA last season but his xFIP was a much healthier 3.42, suggesting bad luck on balls in play (BABIP .341 vs. career .289). His 95.2 mph average fastball velocity and 32.4% strikeout rate both rank in the 85th percentile. If his BABIP normalizes, expect a 3.60 ERA and potential deadline flip value. Taylor Rogers (1yr/$2M to Minnesota) is a different story: 37-year-old lefty reliever with declining velocity (91.2 mph, down from 93.4 in 2023) but elite command (5.1 BB%). Rogers projects for a 4.10 ERA in 50 innings - pure depth value. Meanwhile, Max Scherzer (39, FA) says he'll wait past Opening Day if needed. Our aging curves suggest a 4.50+ ERA for any Scherzer landing spot in 2026. The smart money is fading any team that overpays.
January 24: Bichette WAR Projections - The Position Change Factor
Bo Bichette's 3-year, $126M deal with the Mets comes with a critical caveat: he's moving from shortstop to third base. Our WAR models project a 0.4-0.6 win drop from defensive regression at the hot corner. However, Bichette's elite .311/.357/.483 slash line from 2025 translates to a projected 4.2 fWAR at 3B versus 4.8 at SS. The Mets now project for 93.7 wins with Bichette, Lindor, and a healthy rotation. The real edge? Bichette's $42M AAV opt-outs mean he's maximally motivated in 2026-27. Our models show Mets NL East odds should compress from +320 to +260. The position change concerns are overblown for a bat this elite.
January 28: Japanese Stars WAR Projections - Murakami, Okamoto, Imai
ESPN's 2026 fantasy guide dropped today with intriguing projections for MLB's incoming Japanese talent. Our WAR models have been updated with NPB translation factors. Munetaka Murakami's 36-homer 2024 NPB season translates to a projected 28-32 MLB homers with a .265/.355/.485 slash using historical NPB-to-MLB conversion rates (typically 15-20% power regression, 20-25 point BA regression). His defensive metrics at 3B are concerning (projected -5 DRS), but the bat projects to 2.8-3.4 fWAR. Kazuma Okamoto (Blue Jays, $60M/4yr) has slightly better plate discipline (11.2% BB rate in NPB) and projects to 2.5-3.0 fWAR at 3B/1B. Hiroya Imai's 2.74 NPB ERA and 9.8 K/9 translate to a projected 3.65-3.95 MLB ERA based on our pitching translation models. For futures bettors: teams landing Murakami should see 1.5-2.5 win bumps in our projections. Monitor Padres and Giants heavily linked to Murakami, both currently undervalued in division odds.
January 28: Peralta Extension Talks - The xFIP Edge
Freddy Peralta told reporters he'll consider a multiyear extension with the Mets before reaching free agency. The analytics case is compelling: Peralta's 2.89 ERA over the last two seasons is backed by an elite 2.78 xFIP, suggesting his performance is completely sustainable. His 11.4 K/9 rate ranks 8th among qualified starters, and his 31.2% CSW (called strike + whiff) rate is elite. At age 28 with only $8M owed in 2026, Peralta represents a rare cost-controlled ace opportunity. Our rotation WAR models project the Mets with a healthy Peralta extension would field a top-3 MLB rotation (Peralta, Senga, Severino, McNeil). If Peralta signs, expect Mets World Series odds to shift 50-75 points. The market hasn't priced in the possibility yet.
Get comprehensive daily MLB analysis with detailed breakdowns of every game. Our system analyzes team statistics, pitcher matchups, and betting trends to deliver actionable baseball betting intelligence. View Today's MLB Picks | Beyond the Box Score | Our Models